Import Container Volume Is Expected To Remain Well Above 2009 Level in September

Import container volume at major U.S. ports for retail cargoes is expected to be up 16% in September over the same month last year, but 2010 has already hit its peak and numbers will decline through the remainder of the year, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released on Sept. 7 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

“Retailers have stocked up early on much of their holiday merchandise in order to avoid some of the supply chain disruptions seen earlier in the year,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Cargo is still coming in, but the key question for sales will be what happens with employment and other factors that affect consumer confidence this fall. Retailers are hoping they’ve hit the right balance of supply and demand.”

U.S. ports handled 1.38 million TEUs in July, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was up 5% from June and 25% from July 2009. It was the eighth month in a row to show a year-over-year improvement, after a 28-month streak of year-over-year declines ended in December 2009.

August was estimated at 1.35 million TEUs, a 17% increase over last year. September is forecast at 1.32 million TEUs, up 16% from last year; October at 1.3 million TEUs, up 9%; November at 1.2 million TEUs, up 11%; and December at 1.11 million TEUs, up 2%. January 2011, however, is forecast at 1.06 million TEUs, down 2% from January 2010.

The first half of 2010 was estimated at 6.9 million TEUs, up 17% from the same period last year. The full year is forecast at 14.5 million TEUs, which would be up 15% from the 12.7 million TEUs in 2009, which was the lowest since the 12.5 million TEU reported in 2003. The total for 2010 would remain substantially below the high of 16.5 million TEUs seen in 2007.

October is the traditional peak month of the annual shipping season as retailers bring in merchandise for the holiday season, but July’s figures are expected to have been the peak for 2010.

“There is sufficient evidence to suggest that importers anticipated the peak season and bought early, partly as a result of a fear of lack of capacity and containers but also as a means to avoid the hefty peak season surcharges announced by all the carriers,” Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said. “We remain cautious about growth over the next 12 months. The good news is that the influx of new capacity will continue to put downward pressure on freight rates.”

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston and Savannah on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.