Substantial Increase in U.S. Imports Predicted for First Half of 2010

Import cargo volume at the nation's major retail container ports will be 25% higher during the first half of 2010 compared with the same period a year ago, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released on Feb. 8 by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

U.S. ports handled 1.09 million TEUs in December, the latest month for which actual numbers are available. That was unchanged from November but up 2.6% from December 2008 to break a 28-month streak during which monthly totals were lower than the same month the year before. One TEU is one 20-foot cargo container or its equivalent.

The report estimated volume at 1.19 million TEUs, a 17% increase over January 2009, and February, traditionally the slowest month of the year, is forecast at 1.1 million TEUs, up 30% from the previous year. March is forecast at 1.18 million TEUs, up 23% as retailers begin to stock up for spring and summer; April at 1.25 million TEUs, up 27%; May at 1.3 million TEUs, up 26%; and June at 1.38 million TEUs, up 36%. If those totals are realized, volume for the first half of 2010 will stand at 7.4 million TEUs, up 25% from last year's 5.9 million TEUs.

Last year ended with a total volume of 12.7 million TEUs, down 17% from 2008's 15.2 million TEUs and the lowest since the 12.5 million TEUs reported in 2003.

"This forecast assumes that we are not in a double-dip recession and that a recovery is underway," said Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett. "Although 2009 saw decreased import activity levels, the forecast for 2010 points towards growth."

Global Port Tracker, which is produced for NRF by the consulting firm Hackett Associates, covers the U.S. ports of Long Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Hampton Roads, Charleston, and Savannah on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.